Top Climate Scientists Warn Adaptation to Climate Change Can’t Wait
by Vicki Wolf, November 2011

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) released a report on November 18 warning world political leaders that they need to get ready for more dangerous and “unprecedented extreme weather” caused by global warming. After their meeting in Kampala, Uganda on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disaster to Advance Climate Change Adaptation, the panel of top international climate scientists expressed concern that without preparedness and adaptation some areas will need to be abandoned.

The IPCC announced two dire predictions: “It is virtually certain that on a global scale hot days will become hotter and occur more often . . . Likewise, heavy precipitation will occur more often, and the wind speed of tropical cyclones will increase while their number will likely remain constant or decrease.”

The past summer was a very dramatic demonstration of what lies ahead. Extreme heat, drought, flooding and storms left few areas untouched. Farmers across Texas and neighboring states report it was the toughest season they have ever seen.

Unfortunately, Texans may have just seen the beginning of a long, hot, dry spell. Texas will see the worst of it in the coming years, according to Dr.Joe Romm, climatologist, author and Climate Progress blogger. “I have spent a lot of time looking at climate models, and they don’t paint a pretty picture for Texas,” he says. With extreme heat comes extreme drought. “This summer broke a 120 year record for the hottest year by 2 degrees.” The record was set in Oklahoma in 1934. Remember seeing pictures of the Dust Bowl? “Texas will be one of the states hardest hit, and people need to get informed,” Romm says. “I can assure people that this science is solid.”

“Hell and High Water,” the title of one of Romm’s books on climate change, is an accurate description of what’s in store for the Lone Star state. Texas will be hit by the two extremes of climate change. While the state’s inland areas are subject to heating up and drying out, the Texas coast will have to deal with sea level rise and storm surge from powerful hurricanes. According to Romm, in the not so distant future we can expect sea level rise around 3-6 feet, but it doesn’t stop there. “It’s not like sea levels are going to rise 4 feet and stop,” Romm says. “What we are headed toward is an ice-free planet with sea level rise of 250 feet; all but 40 or 50 feet is unstoppable.”

Many scientists and environmentalists have tried to avoid talking about adaptation fearing the this would diminish efforts toward global warming mitigation. But the need to prepare and put adaptation plans into action can no longer be avoided. Adaptation is defined as the process that an organism follows to become better suited to its habitat. Climate change adaptation involves both preparing for and proactively adjusting to negative impacts as well as potential opportunities.

What other countries and one U.S. city are doing to adapt and prepare

Bangladesh, a low-lying country in South Asia, absorbs more than 90 percent of the Himalaya’s snowmelt and already affected by sea level rise, knows adaptation can’t wait. Nature News reports from the Third International Conference on Community Based Adaptation to Climate Change that Bangladesh is taking bold, wise steps to prepare for sea level rise and flooding. Here are some of the projects the country has started:

• Rainwater harvesting to deal with increasing salinity from sea level rise on the coast
• In the flood plains, people are expanding on the tradition of raising their homes on stilts or earthen platforms
• Growing vegetables instead of crops like wheat on floating gardens built on bamboo frames so they can harvest food when the flood water rises

The Netherlands is well known for it’s long-term adaptation record. Dutch law requires a 1-in-1,250 year protection for river defenses compared to New Orleans 1-in-100 years protection, and they’re thinking of increasing it. Here are some of the country’s recent strategies for dealing with climate change:

• Building floating communities that can rise with flood waters above garages that allow water to flow through
• Expanding rivers and canals to contain anticipated swells
• Instead of trying to contain floods, they plan to allow extra water to flow into areas designated for farms and a nature reserve to spare more heavily populated areas from flooding downstream
• Increasing North Sea protection standard from 1-in-10,000 years to 1-in-100,000 years at an annual cost of more than $1 billion

Chicago is bracing for a hotter, wetter climate. Climatologists’ forecast that if global carbon dioxide emissions continue to rise, the northern city’s summers will be more like the Deep South. Chicago’s adaptation projects include:

• Repaving public alleyways with porous materials that let water through and prevent runoff
• Cool, light-colored roofing to help cool the city and reduce CO2 emissions by reducing electricity use
• Replacing the white oak, the state tree, with the more heat-tolerant swamp oak and sweet gum trees
• Removing pavement and adding vegetation to rooftops in the city’s hottest areas

Houston and Gulf Coast Already Experienced in Extreme Weather from Climate Change
Hurricanes with unexpected storm surges, flooding and now a drought that is predicted to surpass the 1917 drought of record (http://blog.chron.com/sciguy/2011/09/analysis-when-will-the-terrible-texas-drought-end/ ) all have descended upon Houston and the Texas Gulf Coast in the last six years. A steep learning curve is required to keep pace with the adaptation to weather extremes that are likely to become the norm for this area in the coming years.

SPPEED Announces Adaptation Recommendations for the Gulf Coast
In Houston, the Severe Storm Prediction Education, and Evacuation from Disaster (SSPEED) Center at Rice University is studying lessons learned from Hurricane Ike to develop a plan for making the Gulf Coast more resilient to storm surge, winds and flooding from hurricanes.

SSPEED released a report this month recommending that 130 miles of wetlands be protected from development and converted into a recreation area to protect areas farther inland from storm impacts. The low-lying areas of Galveston Bay, Bolivar Peninsula and the upper Texas coast, excellent areas for bird watching and kayaking, could become part of the national parks system.

Structural solutions to control flooding also were recommended in the report. They include building a levee at the bridge on Highway 146 that crosses the Houston Ship Channel where the channel empties into the bay. The elevation of land at the point is 25 feet. A 25 ft levee system with flood gates could be built at this location to prevent a storm surge from coming up the channel, according to Jim Blackburn, faculty associate with SSPEED.

For adaptation, Romm recommends that Houston take advantage of the climate for generating electricity. “You have a sunny climate suitable for solar, which will come down sharply in price in the next few years, and will be cheaper than grid power,” Romm says. “You’ll start to see a lot of people offering to put in solar with no money down and no increase in electric bill. It’s happening in a lot of places in the country.” He also recommends cool, light-colored roofs and heat tolerant shade trees to cool the city and reduce electricity use.

In the past decade, City of Houston has taken steps to improve energy efficiency. Some of these improvements can be expanded upon for adaptation to climate change. To reduce the urban heat island effect, the 2008 Houston Commercial Energy Conservation Code includes provisions for mandatory cool roofing on all new commercial buildings.

Houston Advanced Research Center (HARC) has recommend green (vegetated) roofs for cooling and storm water management. The University of Texas at Houston School of Public Health was way ahead of the adaptation curve with its vegetated roof installed in 2003. The University of Houston and Rice University also have installed vegetated roofs on some of their buildings.

According to Romm, adequate planning for climate change adaptation requires a statewide effort and government leaders that are realistic about the future. “If you don’t accept the fact the glaciers are melting, there is no point planning on best case scenarios,” he says. “There is no escaping the reality of science.” He adds that ignoring the scientists is like ignoring a dozen doctors that tell a patient he has diabetes, and he continues to do what he is doing instead of taking the doctor’s life-saving recommendations.

Related Articles and Links:

Texas Drought Multi-Year Dust Bowl - ClimateProgress Blog -
http://thinkprogress.org

Ten Things You Should Know About the Texas Drought
http://stateimpact.npr.org/texas/2011/11/07/ten-things-you-should-know-about-the-texas-drought/

Severe Storm Prediction Education, and Evacuation from Disaster (SSPEED)
www.sspeed.rice.edu